Nuclear proliferation is the spread of nuclear weapons, fissionable material, and weaponsapplicable nuclear technology and information to nations not recognized as nuclear weapon states by the treaty on the non proliferation of nuclear weapons, commonly known as the non proliferation treaty or npt. International conflict, nuclear latency, nuclear proliferation introduction only 10 countries have built nuclear weapons to date. Treaty on the nonproliferation of nuclear weapons npt. The nuclear nonproliferation treaty and the resulting multifaceted nonproliferation regime may have allayed that concern, but the latent threat of. Sagan, nuclear latency and nuclear proliferation, 84. Indeed, latency may be a particularly effective tool for preserving or strengthening the commitment of the united states to its clients. Nuclear latency can be viewed as the possession of most or all of the technologies, facilities, materials, expertise including tacit knowledge, resources, and other capabilities necessary for the development of nuclear weapons, stopping short of full operational weaponization. Also, as a part of describing the coldwar non proliferation regime, the. The opening chapter of this research paper is mostly theoretical. Today, nine states have nuclear weapons and many more can easily acquire those, although only five states are officially recognized as possessing nuclear weapons by the 1968 nuclear nonproliferation treaty npt. Nuclear latency and the future strategic environment.
It also examines the historical record during the cold war as well as the proliferation of nuclear weapons to regional powers and the resulting deterrence consequences. Nuclear latency and the future strategic environment by michael malyshev the nuclear non proliferation treaty and resulting nonproliferation regime may have allayed mid20th century concerns about the rate of spread of nuclear weapons, but the notion of nuclear latency has by no means become obsolete. The 9 countries with nuclear arms, and allies theyve. Smith william spaniely march 24, 2016 abstract latent nuclear capability is a concept of central importance to proliferation scholars. Potter and gaukhar mukhatzhanova stanford uni versity press, 2010. Workshop on nuclear latency, nonproliferation, and. In may 1992, belarus acceded to the nuclear non proliferation treaty.
International atomic energy agency iaea, nuclear latency. The question is no longer how to achieve complete rollback of irans nuclear programme. The other school of thought argues that nuclear weapons are an everpresent risk, and that we should strive. For a critical assessment of the notion, see scott d. Npt, and the closely related issues of nuclear latency and nuclear hedging. Nuclear power and the risk of nuclear proliferation. Nuclear proliferation and the npt by ilkka pastinen upon its conclusion in 1968, the treaty on the nonproliteration of nuclear weapons npt was acclaimed as the most important international agreement in the field of disarmament since the nuclear age began and a major success for the cause of peace. Sagan, nuclear latency and nuclear proliferation, in forecasting proliferation in the 21 st century.
Not least among these challenges is the possibility that the pursuit of nuclear weapons or a nuclear option by. Workshop on nuclear latency, nonproliferation, and disarmament. Kazakhstan inherited 1,400 nuclear weapons from the soviet union, and transferred them all to russia by 1995. This course provides an introduction to the politics and theories surrounding the proliferation of nuclear weapons. One of the most serious threats facing the united states and other countries is the possibility that a nuclear weapon, nuclear weaponusable materials, or certain highrisk radiological sources could be stolen from poorly secured stockpiles or facilities in various locations around the world. This questionwhich i will call the nuclear latency. In circumstances in which states face opposition to nuclear proliferation from a key ally, nuclear latency can be an attractive option. The treaty is regarded as the cornerstone of the global nuclear nonproliferation regime and an essential foundation for the pursuit of nuclear disarmament. Nuclear proliferation is the spread of nuclear weapons, fissionable material, and weaponsapplicable nuclear technology and information to nations not recognized as nuclear weapon states by the treaty on the nonproliferation of nuclear weapons, commonly known as the nonproliferation treaty or npt. Because such latent capability is not proscribed by the nuclear non proliferation treaty, this is sometimes called the japan option as a workaround to the treaty, as japan is a clear case of a country with complete technical prowess to develop a.
It highlights a range of existing good policies and practices aimed at furthering nuclear disarmament, curbing nuclear proliferation, or safeguarding nuclear security, and explores what parliamentarians can further do to fashion the. We show that nuclear latency is far more common than nuclear proliferation. To build a nuclear weapon, a country must have technical knowledge and capabilities, access to materials, and a welldeveloped industrial sector. Both the international atomic energy agency iaea and the nuclear nonproliferation treaty npt embody an inherent contradiction.
Civil nuclear power and nuclear weapons proliferation. This is the introduction from peaceful nuclear programs and the problem of nuclear latency, by john carlson. Pursuant to article 24 of the agreement, the agreement entered into force on 19 july. Nuclear proliferation, the spread of nuclear weapons, nuclear weapons technology, or fissile material to countries that do not already possess them. Today, nine states have nuclear weapons and many more can easily acquire those, although only five states are officially recognized as possessing nuclear weapons by the 1968 nuclear non proliferation treaty npt. States that could assemble an arsenal relatively quickly in the event of a crisis, like japan, possess nuclear latency. The record matthew bunn1 in considering how to reduce the contribution of the civilian nuclear energy system to the proliferation of nuclear weapons in the future, it is important to examine what aspects of civilian nuclear energy have contributed to nuclear weapons programs in the past. In addition, since 1996 the us has been conducting the foreign research reactor frr spent nuclear fuel snf acceptance program to return spent fuel of us origin from many countries around the world. A novel nuclear weapons proliferation assessment method has been developed to determine a states nuclear weapons latency, the expected time to be taken by a nonnuclear weapons state to develop a conventionally deliverable nuclear weapon given the states position on a path toward or away from a nuclear weapon and accounting for the states motivations and intentions. There are an estimated 23,000 nuclear weapons in the world today, 22,000 of them belonging to the united states and russia. Supporting nuclear nonproliferation and disarmament.
Benefits and burdens of nuclear latency international. Nuclear latency and nuclear proliferation by scott sagan download pdf. Finally, the new quantitative proliferation literature in political science frequently conflates two analytically different phenomena under the same labels of nuclear weapons capability or nuclear latency. The first section briefly presents what we know about which states developed nuclear weapons and which states started but abandoned weapons development programs. To address these other threats, the department of energys national nuclear security administration. See sagan, nuclear latency and nuclear proliferation, 85. Vertical proliferation vs horizontal proliferation. Instead, people fear nuclear armageddon, and the power of the atom is becoming synonymous with death and destruction. Nuclear proliferation pdf carnegie council for ethics in. Kazakhstan has since acceded to the nuclear non proliferation treaty.
Nuclear latency matthew fuhrmann and benjamin tkach. The aim of this article is to summarize, synthetize, update, and contextualize turkeys nonproliferation policies and link it to the broader discussion on nuclear latency. This questionwhich i will call the nuclear latency questionis both exceedingly. As argued above, the united states has been the foremost opponent of nuclear proliferation and, consequently, would have responded to the spread of sensitive nuclear technology by deploying either positive or negative inducements, or a combination thereof, to persuade latent states from proceeding further down the nuclear path.
A latent variable approach to measuring nuclear capability bradley c. Nuclear latency can be viewed as the possession of many or all of the technologies, facilities, materials, expertise including tacit knowledge, resources and other capabilities necessary for the development of nuclear weapons, without full operational weaponization. Also, as a part of describing the coldwar nonproliferation regime, the. The agreement was approved by the board of governors on 18 march 2003. Nuclear power and the risk of nuclear proliferation that was the view expressed by henry sokolski, executive director of the washington, d. If detonated, these weapons would cause the equivalent of about 150,00 hiroshima bombs. It discusses coding procedures, describes global trends, and compares the dataset with earlier efforts to measure nuclear latency. Compellence with nuclear latency, security studies, 26. It introduces the basics of nuclear weapons, nuclear strategy, and deterrence theory.
The spread of nuclear weapons is a hotly debated topic, with two dominating schools of thought. The views in this paper are the authors and not necessarily those of nti. Because such latent capability is not proscribed by the nuclear non proliferation treaty, this is sometimes called the japan option as a workaround to the treaty, as japan is considered a paranuclear state, being a clear case of a country with complete technical prowess to develop a nuclear weapon quickly, or as it is sometimes called. Fsi cisac nuclear latency and nuclear proliferation. Because such latent capability is not proscribed by the nuclear nonproliferation treaty, this is sometimes called the japan option as a workaround to the treaty, as japan is a clear case of a country with complete technical prowess to develop a. Nuclear latency is the condition of a country possessing the technology to quickly build nuclear weapons, without having actually yet done so. Scrap nuclear plans, international herald tribune, august 8, 1995. The term is also used to refer to the possible acquisition of nuclear weapons by terrorist organizations or other armed groups. In the literature, the technical capability to develop. Proliferation has been opposed by many nations with and without nuclear weapons, as. The aim of this article is to summarize, synthetize, update, and contextualize turkeys non proliferation policies and link it to the broader discussion on nuclear latency.
Pdf the causes of nuclear weapons proliferation researchgate. All along, nuclear proliferation has been a field in which analytical judgement calls are. Appendix a physics and technology of nuclear explosive materials. Peaceful nuclear programs and the problem of nuclear latency. I highlight the problems that result from uncertainty about the accuracy and completeness of the data. The geopolitics of nuclear weapons geopolitical futures. Nuclear proliferation remains one of the most pressing and important issues in international politics and security. By volha charnysh, napf intern from nuclear proliferation.
This workshop report explores the relationship between nuclear latency and contemporary nonproliferation efforts, including. Turkish nuclear diplomacy and nonproliferation policies. Eight sovereign states have publicly announced successful detonation of nuclear weapons. The paper also looks at the safeguards challenges presented by national nuclear fuel cycle developments, and. Determinants of nuclear weapons proliferation february 26. Proliferation of nuclear weapons is reproduced in the annex to this document for the information of all members. Five are considered to be nuclearweapon states nws under the terms of the treaty on the nonproliferation of nuclear weapons npt.
The causes of nuclear weapons proliferation annual. Does the nuclear non proliferation treaty need an overhaul. It was signed on 29 march 2004 in windhoek and on 7 april 2004 in vienna. They concede that the, nuclear non proliferation treaty npt which went into effect in 1970, has helped limit. Despite widespread discussion of these policy issues, however, a set of mirrorimage analytic failures has limited our ability to make clear predictions about nuclear latency and proliferation. Many people also perceive a positive connection between nuclear energy and international security, especially when iranian or north korean nuclear intentions have been. Nuclear latency and the future strategic environment by michael malyshev the nuclear nonproliferation treaty and resulting nonproliferation regime may have allayed mid20th century concerns about the rate of spread of nuclear weapons, but the notion of nuclear latency has by no means become obsolete. Among the participants, there was widespread recognition that nuclear latency is an important but understudied issue with significant implications for nonproliferation, arms control and disarmament. Second, there is a great deal of weapons potential latent in. Nuclear proliferation has long been recognized as a severe threat to the world.
The country maintains a policy that it will not use, or threaten to use its arsenal against any nonnuclearweaponcarrying state according to the uns 1970 treaty on the nonproliferation of. Civilian nuclear energy and nuclear weapons programs. This book strives to take stock of current achievements and existing challenges in nuclear verification, identify the available information and gaps that can act as drivers for exploring new approaches to verification strategies and technologies. The nuclear proliferation danger is an issue derived from the intentions of governments instead of the existence of nuclear power plants or even of nuclear fuelcycle facilities. A comprehensive view of the history of nuclear proliferation.
One school espouses the belief that horizontal nuclear proliferation is inevitable and that increased proliferation engenders nuclear deterrence. Japan, south korea, and egypt executive summary nuclear activity in north korea and iran presents numerous challenges to the global nonproliferation regime. Yet many others have the technical capacity to proliferate if they so desired. It was argued that nuclear latency was a special case of strategic latency. The new political science literature on nuclear proliferation and nonproliferation should help us understand the crucial questions about states capabilities and motives forbuilding thebomb, but it has thus far been of limited utility. Sensitive nuclear assistance and nuclear proliferation dongjoon jo and erik gartzke. When a country does not currently have nuclear weapons but has a peaceful nuclear program that could be used to produce nuclear weapons, it is said to be in a state of nuclear latency. In order of acquisition of nuclear weapons these are the united states, russia the successor state to the soviet union, the united kingdom, france, and china.
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